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The Psychology of Money - Distillation, Chapter 13 - 20

Sat, 22 Mar 2025 00:00:00 +0000

Chapter 13 Room For Error - The most imporant part of every plan is planning on your plan not going according to plan.

Chapter 14 You’ll Change - Long-term planning is harder than it seems because people’s goals and desires change over time.

作者说一个他的朋友的故事来告诉我们人的价值观和世界观是会发生改变的：他的朋友从小相当医生，但是当上医生以后他发现自己很讨厌这个职业。人们的财务规划也是这样，要避免过于极端的财务规划，一剂药接受我们的想法会改变。

Chapter 15 Nothing’s Free - Everything has a price, but not all prices appear on labels.

很多人愿意付车钱，房子钱，但是不愿意付投资的学费，这是为什么呢，因为我们总觉得投资的失败是一种惩罚的罚金，人不愿意交罚金，但是其实投资的失败只是一种消费。

Chapter 16 You & Me - Beware taking financial cues from people playing a different game than you are.

有些人做长线，有些人做短线，没必要和人进行比较。

Chapter 17 The Seduction of Pessimism - Optimism sounds like a sales pitch. Pessimism sounds like someone trying to help you.

人们总对世界负面的言论更加感到有共鸣。比如在大家都狂欢的时候如果有一个人说一些负面的话，大伙儿会觉得这是一个智者，但是如果在大家都悲观的时候有人说积极的话反而会被认为是精神病。

市场会调节，会有负反馈，和人生一样，不会太好，也不会太差。 Progress happens too slowly to notice, but setbacks happen too quickly to ignore.

Chapter 18 When You’ll believe anything - Appleaing fictions, and why stories are more powerful than statistics.

我们有的时候会为自己的想法找借口，编故事，并且我们总认为世界是能被解释的，但其实不是这样的。

Chapter 19 All Together Now - What we’ve learned about the psychology of your own money.

给出了一堆建议，其实我觉得有点空洞+成功学，就不列举了。

Chapter 20 Confessions - The psychology of my own money.

作者讲了一下他和他的老婆都是有相同的价值观，并且一直把自己的物欲过的不那么高。其实我也很希望自己能遇到一个这样的人。

Postscript: A brief history of why the US Consumer thinks the way they do.

大概就是二战结束之后很多人回国没有事情做，没有房子住，
政府把利率调整很低
大家的创新创造了财富
财富被相对平均的分配了
债务上升了，但是工资也上升了，所以整体问题不大
失业率提高，进入经济衰退期
经济继续繁荣了，但是这次收入不再那么平均了
人们的生活方式，比较心理发生了改变
规范被创立了以后，就很难改变，人们还是认为分配的是平均的，想追求和别人相同的生活，但是这样导致了很多借贷。
作者暗示可能会有战争，因为这是一个循环，不知道是什么意思了。

总结

本以为是一本理财的书，没想到读完发现是一本成功学的书，或者是个人提升的书。作者讲了 20 个点，可能会对人的价值观塑造有一些帮助。我读起来感觉不困难，说明这里面很多的价值观和我的价值观是一样的，最喜欢的 chapter 可能是 chpater17，讲了悲观主义为什么会盛行，在这个当今的社会，这点 observation 非常重要，会帮助你对抗很多负面的言论观点。

The Psychology of Money - Distillation, Chapter 1 - 2

Mon, 17 Mar 2025 00:00:00 +0000

Introduction

The author lists two examples: Ronald James, a gas station attendant, managed to save up to 8 million by retirement; Richard Fuscone, a harvard-educated Merrill Lynch executive, declared bankrupt during recession. The author ties to prove that finance is a soft science that does not require a lot of intelligence. Rather it requires behaviors.

Chapter 1. No one’s crazy

The author claims that people with dramatically different experience will make extremely different decisions, but those decisions are all logical to their own minds. To illustrate this point, author lists how stock market price changes differently if you were born in 1950s and 1970s, how inflation rate changes differently if you were born in 1960s and 1990s.

In addition, the author also points out that how we make decisions about money are relatively new to the world, so it’s totally reasonable that there are some decisions that are not the most correct.

Chapter 2. Luck&Risk

Nothing is as good or as bad as it seems. The author lists examples where luck plays in a role at Bill Gates since he was very lucky to be 1 of a million students who get access to computers in high school. On the contrary, Gates’ best friend passed away accidently in a mountain climbing, which is also 1 of 1 million but in a different direction. In investment, it’s hard to separate the luck/risk from the strategy. Therefore, focus less on individual cases but more on broad patterns.

The Psychology of Money - Distillation, Chapter 3 - 12

Mon, 17 Mar 2025 00:00:00 +0000

Chapter 3. Never Enough

The author listed Rajat gupta and Bernie Madoff who both had enormous amount of money ended fraud because they always wanted to make more money even they had a lot already. There is no reason to risk what you have and need for what you don’t have and don’t need. The author also listed the following advices:

The hardes financial skill is getting the goalpost to stop moving.
Social comparison is the problem here.
Enough is not too little.
There are many things never worth risking no matter the potential gain.

Chapter 4. Confounding Compounding

The author used Milankovitch Cycles(a slightly warmer summer cannot melt ice in the winter ended up componudnig to glacier time) to prove that compounding grows faster than you think. In addition, the author also compared James Simons who had 66% return with Warren Buffet with 22% return. The reason why Buffet made more money is not because his strategy outperformed James’, but because Buffet invested longer than James did. Therefore, the author wanted to show that good investing is more about you can stick with it.

Chapter 5. Getting Wealthy vs Staying Wealthy

The author showed us Jesse Livermore, who made a ton of money during recession, ended up losing all his money during his larger bets later, to prove his points that survival is extremely important in investing. The author also shoed that a barbelled ppersonality - optimistic about the future but paranoid about whwat will prevent you from getting to the future - is vital.

Chapter 6. Tails, You Win

The author explained that the reason why Heinz Berggruen could possess massive collection of Picassos, Braques, Klees to the German government was because he invested in lots of other artwork, including those become masterpiece later. In addition, Disney got famous because of Snow White and Seven Dwarfs. The author wanted to prove that anything that is huge, profitable, famous, or influential is the result of tail event. Therefore, it’s okay to fail as long as you try a huge amount. Realizing the power of tail makes you feel less worried about failures because most of things will fail, but the successful things will give you big returns.

Chapter 7. Freedom - Controlling your time is the highest dividend money pays.

The author depicted freedom as you can do what you want, when you want, with who you want, for as long as you want. Money gives you the power of doing so. The author also showed that in previous generations, working requires specific tools, and it’s easy to detach your hand from work just because you get detached from the tool. Nowadays, it’s harder because you work with your brain, and it’s hard to detach from your brain. Then, it’s more cherished that money can give you some freedom.

Chapter 8. Man in the Car Paradox - No one is impressed with your possessions as much as you are.

The author used his own personal anecdote to show that people tend to want wealth to signal to others that they should be liked and admired. But in reality those other people often bypass admiring you, not because they don’t think wealth is admirable, but because they use your wealth as a benchmark for their own desire to be liked and admired. If respect and admiration are your goal, be careful how you seek it.

Chapter 9. Wealth is what you don’t see - Spending money to show people how much money you have is teh fastest way to have less money.

Wealth is what you don’t see.

Chapter 10. Save Money - The only factor you can control generates one of the only things that matter. How wonderful.

Saving rates is the only thing that you can control.
The value of wealth is relative to what you need.
Past a certain level of income, what you need is just what sits below your ego.
So people’s ability to save is more in their control than they think.
And you don’t need a specific reason to save.
That flexibility and control over your time is an unseen return on wealth.

Chapter 11. Reasonable > Rational - Aiming to be mostly reasonable works better than trying to be codly rational.

The author used fever as an example to illustrate that even though fever is rationally good for your body, but people also take pills right away when they have fever because people feel pain. Here, reasonable is bigger than rational. Also, in investment, there are lots of strategies that are rational but not reasonable for people to implement. Rather, it’s more profitable for a person to implement reasonable strategy because in the long run, the market favors long-term strategy and you are more likely to implement a reasonable strategy.

Chapter 12. Surprise - History is a study of change, ironically used as a map of the future.

Things that have never happened before happen all the time. Outlier event move the needle the most. History can be a misleadding guide to the future of the economy and stock market because it doesn’t account for structural chagnes that are relevant to today’s world.

需要多少钱才能退休 - 中国

Sun, 16 Mar 2025 00:00:00 +0000

一个人活到老的版本

类别	月支出（元）	月支出（美元）	年支出（元）	年支出（美元）
住房（住在父母家，无需费用）	0	0	0	0
饮食	2,700	375	32,400	4,500
交通
- 车险	250	35	3,000	417
- 油费	250	35	3,000	417
- 保养	100	14	1,200	167
交通合计	600	83	7,200	1,000
医疗
- 保险	1,500	208	18,000	2,500
医疗合计	1,500	208	18,000	2,500
娱乐	500	69	6,000	833
账单
- 话费	50	7	600	83
- 网费	50	7	600	83
- 衣服	300	42	3,600	500
账单合计	400	56	4,800	667
总支出	5,700	792	68,400	9,500
FIRE 目标（4%提取率，25 倍年支出）	1,710,000	237,500
FIRE 目标（3%提取率，33 倍年支出）	2,257,200	313,500
FIRE 目标（2%提取率，50 倍年支出）	3,420,000	475,000

两个人结婚版本

Category	Cost Estimate (RMB)	Cost Estimate (USD)
Marriage Costs	200,000	27,778
- Venue & Catering	80,000 - 120,000	11,111 - 16,667
- Wedding Dress & Suit	10,000 - 30,000	1,389 - 4,167
- Photography & Videography	5,000 - 20,000	694 - 2,778
- Wedding Rings & Jewelry	20,000 - 50,000	2,778 - 6,944
- Decorations & Planning	10,000 - 30,000	1,389 - 4,167
- Honeymoon	30,000 - 50,000	4,167 - 6,944
Raising a Child (0-22 years)	1,700,000	236,111
- Birth & Medical Costs (with insurance)	10,000 - 30,000	1,389 - 4,167
- Infant & Toddler (0-3 years)	90,000	12,500
- Preschool (3-6 years)	108,000	15,000
- School Age (6-12 years)	172,800	24,000
- Teenage Years (12-18 years)	226,800	31,500
- University (18-22 years)	105,600	14,667
Annual Additional Cost for Child	77,273	10,729
Extra FIRE Funds for Raising a Child (50x Annual Cost)	3,864,000	536,667
Base FIRE Target (2% Rule - 50x Annual Expenses)	3,420,000	475,000
Marriage + Raising a Child Total Cost	4,064,000	564,444
Final FIRE Target (Including Marriage & Child, 2% Rule)	7,484,000	1,039,444

Category	Cost Estimate (RMB)	Cost Estimate (USD)
Marriage Costs	200,000	27,778
Raising a Child (0-22 years)	1,700,000	236,111
Extra FIRE Funds for Raising a Child (50x Annual Cost)	3,420,000	475,000
Base FIRE Target (2% Rule - 50x Annual Expenses, Doubled for Two People)	6,840,000	950,000
Marriage + Raising a Child Total Cost	1,900,000	263,889
Final FIRE Target (Including Marriage & Child, 2% Rule, Doubled Base)	8,740,000	1,213,889

需要多少钱才能退休 - 美国

Sun, 16 Mar 2025 00:00:00 +0000

书接前文，上次谈到要计算多少钱能退休，现在通过和 chatgpt 以及网络搜索的汇总以后，我得到以下一些思考。

一个人活到老的版本: 每年要花多少钱的计算，按美金计算

Category	Monthly Cost ($)	Annual Cost ($)
Housing	2,000	24,000
Food	2,000	24,000
Transportation
- Car Insurance	150	1,800
- Gas	150	1,800
- Maintenance	30	360
Total Transport	330	3,960
Healthcare
- Insurance	468	5,616
- Out-of-Pocket	250	3,000
Total Healthcare	718	8,616
Entertainment & Leisure	150	1,800
Other Bills
- Phone	25	300
- Internet	100	1,200
- Clothing	100	1,200
Total Other Bills	225	2,700
TOTAL EXPENSES	5,423	65,076
FIRE Number (3% Rule - 33.3x Annual Expenses)	$2,167,030

两个人结婚生孩子的版本

Category	Cost Estimate (USD)
Marriage	$25,000 - $100,000+
- Venue & Catering	$10,000 - $30,000
- Wedding Dress & Suit	$1,500 - $5,000
- Photography & Videography	$2,000 - $7,000
- Wedding Rings & Jewelry	$5,000 - $20,000
- Decorations & Planning	$3,000 - $10,000
- Honeymoon	$5,000 - $15,000
Buying a House	$200,000 - $1,200,000+
- Down Payment (20%)	$60,000 - $200,000
- Mortgage (30-year)	Interest Rate: 6%-8%
- Property Tax & Insurance	$3,000 - $10,000/year
- Maintenance & Renovation	$10,000 - $50,000
Raising a Child (0-18 years)	$250,000 - $400,000+
- Birth & Hospital Costs (with insurance)	$2,000 - $5,000
- Birth & Hospital Costs (without insurance)	$10,000 - $30,000
- Infant & Toddler (0-3 years)	$12,000 - $20,000/year
- School Age (4-12 years)	$10,000 - $15,000/year
- Teenager (13-18 years)	$12,000 - $20,000/year
- College (Public)	$25,000 - $40,000/year
- College (Private)	$50,000 - $80,000/year
FIRE Retirement	$1,200,000 - $3,000,000+
- Monthly Living Costs	$3,000 - $6,000
- Healthcare & Insurance	$500 - $2,000/month
- Travel & Leisure	$500 - $3,000/month
FIRE Target (4% Rule)	$1.2M - $3M+
FIRE Target (3% Rule - More Conservative)	$2.2M - $3.5M+

总结

结婚版本需要多花的钱：结婚大概花 10 万美金，买房子就算 100 万美金，养孩子需要 40 万美金，一共需要 150 万美金。
一个人单身租房版本，大概需要 200 万美金左右能在美国 fire。
算完感觉还是慌。

需要多少钱才能退休 - 美国/中国，总结

Sun, 16 Mar 2025 00:00:00 +0000

地区	不生孩子（靠利息生活）	结婚生孩子（靠利息生活）
美国	200 万美金	400 万美金
中国	50 万美金	120 万美金

报税-W2

Fri, 14 Mar 2025 00:00:00 +0000

前言

今天是 PI 节日，每次 PI 节都是 3 月 14 号，也是如火如荼的报税季节。今年这是我工作第三年，美国报税也有几次了，但我非常讨厌报税，填表格。讨厌的原因有两点，一个是填表格的过程非常繁琐，另一个是填表格结果的正确对于一个完美主义者来说会令人十分令人焦虑。

首先说说这个填表格的过程：每次填表格都是信息检索的过程，首先要理解问题问的是什么，然后在脑子里思考问题的答案是什么，很多时候相同的信息并不会有改变，但是反复在不同的地方填写，实在是浪费时间！

再说说对填表格的结果的焦虑：重要的表格填完了以后还要检查，尤其是对我这样略微带有完美主义倾向的人来说填表格不能出半点差错，如果有点对不上就想研究明白是为什么原因，一研究就进入了兔子洞，研究出来还好，研究不明白则非和自己较劲，非得研究明白才算完，有时候会打扰一晚上的计划和心情。

真希望以后大脑介入芯片的话直接通过 protocol 进行交流，不需要进行无意义的重复信息检索，也不用焦虑结果的差错。

仔细分析为什么我会反感甚至拖延报税，有一个原因就在于自己其实对报税表格的理解不足，如果一个问题是你是明白清晰逻辑的，那么遇到这样的问题自然大脑就觉得很舒适。但如果一个问题你不明白逻辑，搞不清里面的概念，那每次遇到这样的问题就不想作答，就拖延。

毕竟这也不是故意让你填错的表格，设计应该是符合直观逻辑的。但一方面是这样思考，另一方面也承认这个表格的复杂性，我猜测这个表格就像一个代码库，刚开始逻辑清晰简单，但是随着时间的变化，每一届总统，每一个法官都有自己的想法，颁布不同的法案，适应当时的社会状况。随着这些迭代，这种表格必然就有了更复杂的形式。

一个比较好的 growth mindset 就是不会就学，学不懂继续思考，总相信自己能学懂。所以今天想写一下 w2 表格不同格子里具体代表什么内容。

W2

大致

w2 表格总结了年度的收入和预缴，FICA，医保，退休，HSA。

每个格子

a. social security number
b. employer id
c. employ name, address, zip code
d. control number (your id in company)
e. employee's name, address
f. employee's zip code.

1. wages,tips, other comp, 联邦所得税的税基 （扣除 401k 以后）
2. federal income tax witheld，联邦税预缴
3. social security tax，社保税基 （cap 168600 - 2024），超过的部分不用交 social security tax
4. social security tax withheld 社保税收的预缴，税收是 6.2%
5. medicare wages/tips 医保税基，没有 cap，含 401k
6. medicare tax withheld 医保税收的预缴，1.45%，超过 20 万+0.9%
7. social security tips 小费收入
8. allocated tips 小费收入
9. blank
10. Dependent Care Benefits
11. Nonqualified Plans 给 executive，高管
12. 401k，HSA contribution，etc
13.
14. state disability insurance
15. state 州
16. state wages 工资，和 box 1 不一样，因为 HSA 在 state level 收税，但是在 federal level 不收税
17. state income tax 州税收

reference

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_FTOcAjmFVs&ab_channel=%E8%B7%9F%E6%88%91%E4%B8%80%E8%B5%B7%E6%9D%A5%E8%B0%88%E9%92%B1

投资工具-Bond

Thu, 13 Mar 2025 00:00:00 +0000

Treasury 分类

T-Bill, Treasury Bill

短期：4 week，8 week，12 week， etc。
没有 coupon（票面利息），只有折价发行，折价率，本质是 interest 而不是 capital gain。
利息是 recurring gain，税率低。

T-Note, Treasury Note

中期：2-10 年。
开始有票面利息，6 个月付一次。
有二级市场，流动性好。

一级市场：primary market, 融资的公司直接卖给你，价格事先通过投行（investment banking）定好，IPO。Bond 等于是政府定价。
二级市场：secondary market，投资人与投资人之间互相的买卖，价格通过互相买卖的市场决定。

T-Bond, Treasury Bond

长期：10-30 年期。
6 个月付一次利息。
花一定价格购买 face value 的 Bond，会有利息，到期以后你会拿到 face value 的钱

收益率曲线倒挂：变成钟形，长期反而低。（yield 叫做实际收益率）可能会出现经济危机。

TIPS, Treasury Inflation Protected Securities

长期：5 年，10 年，30 年。
6 个月付一次，本金会随着通货膨胀率调整。通货膨胀时候拿的多，相反通货紧缩拿的少。

FRN, Floating Rate Note

中期：2 年期。
6 个月付一次，利率根据 13 周 T-Bills 利率上下浮动。

常识

国债免 state tax，local tax，但是 federal tax 是不能免除的。
bank/broker 购买和 treasury direct 购买的区别：bank/broker 可以用 non-competitive billing 和 competitive billing 购买。非竞争性竞价肯定可以买到，但是买之前不能准确知道以什么价格买，竞争性竞价规定我以什么价格购买。

reference:

Q&A

What are Series EE and Series I savings bond?

Savings Bond 就是一个从风险和收益率和定期存款非常像的一个产品，定期存款 CD 在美国是商业银行发行的，Savings Bond 是美国政府发行的。
Savings Bond 分 Series EE 和 Series I。
- Series EE 是折价发行，甚至是半价，20 年就能赎回，1 年内赎回就丧失所有钱，5 年内丧失最后三个月利息（early withdraw penalty），没有二级市场，所以更像 Saving 而不是储蓄。首先利率很低，其次即使翻倍也有通货膨胀的因素，(1.03)^20 = 1.8, (1.04)^20 = 2.1
- Series I 最大不同在于它并不是折价发行，面值发行，赋予利息，利率是 CPI correlated 的。Series I 有 floor，下限。
Series H Bond，这种在 04 年以后不发行了。
tax
- 只是 federal tax，no local/state tax。
- 独特之处在于你可以选择每年拿利息交税，也可以前 20 年不拿利息，最后 20 年交一笔税，选了之后不能变了，如果不止一只 savings bond，每个 bond 选择得相同。
- 如果你用于 education，可以用来学费，qualified intuition expense，书本住宿还是不能免税，结婚以后得联合 file tax。

C of I, Zero Interest Certificate of Indebedness

Zero Interest 不等于 0 coupon(没有票面利息的债券)，折价发行会有利息在里面
就是没有利息的理财产品？为什么不存在银行拿 interest 或者买 bond？

Strips，Separate Trading of Registered Interest and Principal of Securities

把一个 T-Note，T-Bond 给拆成本金和利息，你只拿到利息或者只拿到本金

没有看到国债有 fdic 保险

基本没有风险，不用考虑这个问题。

Secondary Issue Bond

二级市场购买的 Bond。

投资策略-Laddering(梯状配股)

Wed, 12 Mar 2025 00:00:00 +0000

(written by chatgpt, reviewed by haihaosun)

Laddering: A Smart Investment Strategy

Laddering is an investment strategy used to manage risk, increase liquidity, and optimize returns by diversifying investment maturities across different time frames. This strategy is commonly applied to fixed-income investments like certificates of deposit (CDs), bonds, and Treasury securities.

1. How Laddering Works

Laddering involves dividing your total investment into multiple smaller investments with different maturity dates rather than investing all funds into a single long-term or short-term instrument. This creates a “ladder” of investments maturing at regular intervals.

Example: A 5-Year Bond Ladder

Suppose you have $50,000 to invest in bonds. Instead of buying a single 5-year bond, you create a ladder:

Investment	Term	Amount Invested	Interest Rate
Bond 1	1 year	$10,000	3.5%
Bond 2	2 years	$10,000	3.8%
Bond 3	3 years	$10,000	4.0%
Bond 4	4 years	$10,000	4.2%
Bond 5	5 years	$10,000	4.5%

When Bond 1 matures after 1 year, you reinvest it into a new 5-year bond.
The next year, Bond 2 matures, and you again reinvest in a 5-year bond.
This process continues, maintaining a constant ladder where one bond matures annually.

2. Benefits of Laddering

✅ 1. Improves Liquidity

Since investments mature at regular intervals, you can access funds periodically.
Ideal for investors who may need cash in the short term without sacrificing long-term growth.

✅ 2. Reduces Interest Rate Risk

By spreading out maturity dates, laddering minimizes the impact of rising or falling interest rates.
If rates increase, you reinvest matured investments at higher rates.
If rates decrease, you still have longer-term investments locked in at higher yields.

✅ 3. Enhances Predictability and Stability

You receive periodic interest payments and maturing principal, making financial planning easier.
Suitable for retirees or income-focused investors seeking steady returns.

✅ 4. Maximizes Returns Over Time

Instead of keeping cash idle in low-yield savings accounts, laddering ensures money is continuously working for you.
Offers a balance between short-term access and long-term higher yields.

3. Laddering Strategies

Laddering can be applied to different types of fixed-income investments:

1. CD Laddering (Certificates of Deposit)

Investors buy CDs with staggered maturity dates to balance liquidity and returns.
Example: A 12-month ladder using CDs with 3-month, 6-month, 9-month, and 12-month terms.

2. Bond Laddering

Works best with government bonds, corporate bonds, and municipal bonds.
Helps mitigate reinvestment risk while capturing favorable interest rates.

3. Treasury Laddering (T-Bill Ladder)

Investors buy 4-week, 8-week, 13-week, 26-week, and 52-week Treasury Bills to ensure frequent liquidity.
Ideal for risk-averse investors looking for safe returns with periodic access to funds.

4. Stock Dividend Laddering (Less Common)

Investors buy dividend stocks with different payment schedules to ensure monthly income.
Example: Buying stocks that pay dividends in January, April, July, and October, while others pay in February, May, August, and November.

4. Who Should Use Laddering?

✔ Conservative investors looking for a mix of liquidity and returns.
✔ Retirees who need steady income and predictable cash flow.
✔ Investors concerned about interest rate fluctuations.
✔ People saving for specific goals (e.g., a home purchase in 5 years).

5. Downsides of Laddering

❌ Lower Short-Term Returns – Initial yields may be lower than investing everything in long-term assets.
❌ Reinvestment Risk – If interest rates drop, reinvested funds may yield lower returns.
❌ Complexity – Managing multiple investments requires more tracking.

6. Final Thoughts

Laddering is a low-risk, strategic investment approach that balances liquidity, income stability, and risk management. Whether used for CDs, bonds, or T-bills, it helps investors maintain access to cash while optimizing long-term returns.

7. 把书读薄

核心思想就是把所有钱分成 n 份，然后用一种 dollar cost avergaing 的策略投入储蓄。降低利率波动风险，并且让手里钱的流动性增强。
是不要把鸡蛋放在一个篮子里的另一种在时间轴上的体现。即使投入的理财产品是相同的，但是投入的时间不同也会降低风险。

reference: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=je5j9ZiJa2k&ab_channel=%E8%B7%9F%E6%88%91%E4%B8%80%E8%B5%B7%E6%9D%A5%E8%B0%88%E9%92%B1

投资工具-储蓄

Tue, 11 Mar 2025 00:00:00 +0000

投资工具 - 储蓄

CD (certificate of deposit)

简单来说就是存钱拿利息

Penalty Free CD

比 CD 利息低，但是没有提前取出的 penalty

T-Bills

购买网站
基本没有风险，可以免除 state tax

Money Market

好的流动，高的利率

reference: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CQ63ec_qWKQ&ab_channel=%E8%B7%9F%E6%88%91%E4%B8%80%E8%B5%B7%E6%9D%A5%E8%B0%88%E9%92%B1

投资哲学+投资策略+投资工具

Sun, 09 Mar 2025 00:00:00 +0000

投资哲学 Investment Philosophy

categorizing Investment Philosophies

Market Timing versus Asset Selection: With market timing, you bet on the movement of entire markets - financial as well as real assets. With asset selection, you focus on picking good investments within each market.
Activist Investing versus Passive Investing: With passive investing, you take positions in companies and hope that the market corrects its mistakes. With activist investing, you play a role (or provide the catalyst) in correcting market mistakes.
Time Horizon: Some philosophies require that you invest for long time periods. Others are based upon short holding periods.

Investment Philosophy Examples

价值投资 Value Investing
- 寻找 underpriced 的 stock，通过长期持有获取价值回归的收益。
增长投资 Growth Investing
- 寻找潜力高的公司，即使当前估值高。
动量投资 Momentum Investing
- 买入上涨趋势中的资产，并在衰退趋势前卖出

reference: https://www.investopedia.com/terms/i/investment-philosophy.asp
reference: https://pages.stern.nyu.edu/~adamodar/pdfiles/country/invphil1day.pdf

投资策略 Investment Strategies

Investment Strategies Example

资产配置 Asset Allocation
- 根据投资者的风险偏好，将资金分配到股票，债券，房地产等不同投资产品
- age% 防守
- （1 - age%）进攻
定投策略（Dollar-Cost Averaging, DCA）
- 定期投入固定金额资金，无论市场涨跌，减少择时风险，平滑成本
量化投资（Quantitative Investing）
- 利用数学模型和计算机算法进行交易，如高频交易（HFT）和因子投资（Factor Investing）。

投资工具 Investment Tools

股票 Stock
大宗商品
房地产
黄金
债券
货币基金

如何选择合适自己的投资方式

明确目标
- 短期（1-3 年）：适合短线交易、动量策略、期权交易。
- 中期（3-10 年）：适合成长股投资、定投指数基金、宏观对冲策略。
- 长期（10 年以上）：适合价值投资、指数投资、房地产投资。
评估风险承受能力
- 低风险投资者：优先选择债券、指数基金、房地产。
- 中等风险投资者：配置成长股、ETF、REITs。
- 高风险投资者：可以考虑个股、期权、外汇、加密货币。
结合市场环境
- 牛市：适合成长投资、动量投资。
- 熊市：适合价值投资、宏观对冲策略、债券投资。
- 高通胀时期：黄金、大宗商品、房地产表现较好。

个人的 takeaway

首先对我来说最重要的一点是明确职业生涯是提供财富的基石，投资只是让储蓄的钱自动生钱的一个机会。其次想明确的是了解投资和投机的区别，长期持有而非短期投机。

退休账户梳理101

Thu, 06 Mar 2025 00:00:00 +0000

🚀 退休金梳理 101

401(k), IRA, pre-tax, after-tax 扫盲

📌 按照账户类型：401(k) vs. IRA

401(k) (Employer-Sponsored Plan)
- 公司提供的，公司有的时候会提供 match。
- 投资选择比较少。
- 有管理费。
- RMD （Required Minimum Distribution）72 岁以后要取钱。
- 59.5 岁取钱才不会有罚金。
- Possible administration fees from the employer.
IRA (Individual Retirement Account)
- 个人开户，不需要公司提供。
- 投资选择多样。
- Roth IRA 没有 RMDs, but Traditional IRA 有.
- 没有管理费。

🔹 按照投入方式：税前 VS 税后

Pre-Tax
- 税前投入，可以降低 tax bracket。
- 取出的时候交税。
After-Tax
- 税后投入，不能降低 tax bracket。
- 没有资本利得税。
- 取出的时候不用交税。

税收总结

When do you pay tax	Contribution	Growth	Withdrawal (Subject to income tax)
Traditional (Pre-Tax)	No	No	Yes
Roth (After-Tax)	Yes	No	No
After-Tax Backdoors	Yes	No	Yes

🚀 如何把钱放进去（假设你是一个公司雇员）

📌 公司相关

Employee contribution (22500)
Employer matching
mega backdoor

1 + 2 + 3 <= 66000

📌 个人行为

step1，开一个 traditional IRA，roth IRA
step2，个人银行 6500 转到 traditional IRA
step3，settle 以后立刻转 Roth IRA
step4，File 8606

💡 如何选择

pre-tax or after-tax？取决于你将来的收入会不会比现在高？
401(k) or IRA？你的投资水平能不能赢跑赢大盘？
rollover，基本来说 pre-tax 能换 after-tax，401k 能换 IRA

附录，from chatgpt

🔹 Comparing 401(k) and IRA: Pre-Tax vs. After-Tax

Feature	401(k) (Pre-Tax)	401(k) (After-Tax)	401(k) (Roth)	IRA (Pre-Tax)	IRA (After-Tax)	IRA (Roth)
Contributions	Pre-tax	After-tax	After-tax	Pre-tax	After-tax	After-tax
Tax Benefit	Reduces taxable income now	No immediate tax benefit	No immediate tax benefit	Reduces taxable income	No immediate tax benefit	No immediate tax benefit
Growth	Tax-deferred	Tax-deferred	Tax-free	Tax-deferred	Tax-deferred	Tax-free
Withdrawals	Taxed at retirement	Taxed at retirement	Tax-free	Taxed at retirement	Taxed at retirement	Tax-free
Employer Match	✅ Yes	✅ Yes	✅ Yes	❌ No	❌ No	❌ No
Investment Options	Limited (Employer chooses)	Limited (Employer chooses)	Limited (Employer chooses)	Almost unlimited	Almost unlimited	Almost unlimited
RMD (Required Minimum Distributions)	✅ Yes	✅ Yes	✅ Yes (Can roll into Roth IRA to avoid)	✅ Yes	✅ Yes	❌ No
Administration Fees	✅ Yes (Employer fees)	✅ Yes (Employer fees)	✅ Yes (Employer fees)	❌ No	❌ No	❌ No

🔹 Explanation

🔷 Pre-Tax Accounts (Traditional 401(k) & IRA)

Contributions are before-tax (reduce taxable income now).
Growth is tax-deferred (you don’t pay taxes until withdrawal).
Withdrawals are fully taxable in retirement.
RMDs apply at age 73.
Ideal for those who expect to be in a lower tax bracket in retirement.

🔷 After-Tax (Non-Roth) 401(k) & IRA

Contributions are after-tax (no immediate tax deduction).
Growth is tax-deferred, but earnings are taxed upon withdrawal.
Withdrawals are partially taxable (contributions tax-free, but earnings taxed).
RMDs apply at age 73.
Can be used for the Mega Backdoor Roth strategy!

🔷 Roth Accounts (Roth 401(k) & Roth IRA)

Contributions are after-tax (no upfront tax benefit).
Growth is completely tax-free.
Qualified withdrawals are tax-free in retirement.
RMDs apply to Roth 401(k), but you can roll it into a Roth IRA to avoid RMDs.
No RMDs for Roth IRA! Funds can grow tax-free indefinitely.
Best for those who expect to be in a higher tax bracket in retirement.

🔥 Mega Backdoor Roth Strategy

💡 The Mega Backdoor Roth is an advanced retirement savings strategy that allows high earners to move after-tax 401(k) contributions into a Roth IRA or Roth 401(k), unlocking tax-free growth.

✅ How It Works:

Max out regular 401(k) contributions ($23,000 in 2024, $30,500 if 50+).
Make additional after-tax contributions (if your plan allows).
Immediately convert after-tax contributions into a Roth IRA or Roth 401(k) (before earnings accumulate and become taxable).
Enjoy tax-free growth and withdrawals in retirement!

🔷 Why Use the Mega Backdoor Roth?

Allows higher Roth contributions beyond standard limits.
Helps high earners build tax-free retirement income.
Avoids RMDs if rolled into a Roth IRA.

⚠️ Not all employer 401(k) plans allow after-tax contributions or in-plan Roth conversions. Check your plan’s rules!

🚀 Retirement Tax Hack: Choosing the Right Plan

If you’re in a high tax bracket now, a Traditional 401(k) or IRA can reduce taxable income.
If you expect to be in a higher tax bracket later, a Roth 401(k) or Roth IRA helps avoid future taxes.
Max out employer 401(k) matching first before investing in IRAs.
Diversify: Having both pre-tax and after-tax accounts gives flexibility in retirement withdrawals.

📢 Final Thoughts

Understanding 401(k), Roth, and IRA options helps you make tax-smart decisions for retirement. The key is to balance pre-tax and after-tax contributions based on your income, expected tax rates, and long-term financial goals.

🚀 Start investing now! Your future self will thank you.

reference:

https://youtu.be/7Ssh24wzaMI